Gold has already shown the market how far this trend can go.
In January 2026, the price of the metal rose to approximately$5,595 per ounce- historical maximum.
Then came a sharp correction.
It would seem that after such a movement the market should have entered a normalization phase.
But Deutsche Bank sees things differently.
According to the bank's strategist Michael Hsu, gold is still in the so-called“explosive phase” of price behavior, which began back in August 2024. The bank maintains annual guidance of approx.$4 600, and the estimated fair value of the metal in the model used is about$4 700.
And here the main question arises:
Is the correction really over—or is the market just preparing for the next big move?
From $4000 to a new impulse
In early August, gold accelerated sharply again.
In just a month the price has increased by approximately10%, rising from the $4,000 area to $4,400 per ounce. Reuters attributes this to a combination of weak US labor market data, expectations of a looser Fed policy, a weaker dollar, geopolitical risks and continued demand from central banks.
This is important.
Because gold is now rising not because of one specific factor.
Several forces work in one direction at once.
Weaker dollar → easier for gold to rise.
Lower real rates → gold becomes more attractive.
Geopolitical uncertainty → demand for defensive assets is growing.
Purchases by central banks → structural demand appears.
It is the combination of these factors that makes the current cycle unusual.
Why does Deutsche Bank talk about an "explosive phase"?
This is not just about a strong price increase.
The bank's strategist compares gold's current performance to historical periods when the metal began to move significantly faster than its long-term pace.
Gold has more than doubled in the last two years.
This is why Deutsche Bank uses a rather unusual definition -explosive price behavior.
At the same time, the bank itself does not claim that gold must grow vertically.
On the contrary.
Such phases are usually accompanied by very high volatility.
That is, sharp sales may well occur between two strong impulses.
And the market has already shown this.
Why the January crash didn't necessarily break the trend
In January, gold reached approximately $5,595.
After this, a serious correction began.
Deutsche Bank sees it more as a resultliquidity, profit taking and reduction of overloaded long positions, and not as a fundamental market reversal. In its own research, the bank previously noted that the sell-off was exacerbated by forced deleveraging and outflows from ETFs.
This is a fundamental difference.
If investors sell gold because the fundamental story has collapsed, recovery may be difficult.
If some of the sales are caused by a technical decline in positions, the market is able to move back to growth after liquidity normalizes.
It is the second scenario that now looks more convincing for Deutsche Bank.
The main buyer is no longer just an investor
One of the main reasons for long-term optimism in gold is central banks.
In the second quarter of 2026, their net purchases reached289 tons, which became a record. According to Reuters, about 45% of central banks participating in a World Gold Council survey said they intend to increase gold reserves.
This changes the structure of the market.
When a private investor buys gold, he can sell it within a week.
When the central bank increases the share of gold in reserves, the horizon is usually much longer.
Therefore, such demand can create fundamental support even when speculative positions are reduced.
But there is also a serious risk
Deutsche Bank's bullish outlook does not mean that gold is guaranteed to go to $4,700 without further corrections.
The market has already shown how high volatility can be.
The main threat to gold is a combinationstronger dollar and higher real Treasury yields.
If inflation proves persistent and the Fed is forced to maintain tight policy longer, the opportunity cost of holding gold will rise.
And then the metal may again encounter pressure.
This is why $4,700 is not a “target that the market is obligated to meet.”
This is an estimate based on certain macroeconomic assumptions.
Why $4700 no longer looks fantastic
Not long ago, a four-digit gold price above $4,000 seemed like an extreme scenario.
Now the market has become accustomed to this level.
At around $4,400, a move to $4,700 would mean about7% growth.
For gold, after several years of strong movement, this is far from an impossible scale.
Moreover, other large banks also maintain a positive outlook. UBS predicted in August$5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027, although he also warned about short-term risks.
However, the market consensus is far from being so optimistic: a July Reuters poll of 29 analysts gave a median forecast of about$4509 for 2026.
That is, $4,700 is already a bullish scenario, but not an extreme forecast.
What does this mean for a trader?
One point is important here.
If gold has indeed entered a new phase of growth, then trying to sell every correction could be a dangerous strategy.
But buying metal after a vertical movement without taking into account the risk is no less dangerous.
Therefore, the market now should be considered through several key factors:
US real yields;
dollar exchange rate;
Fed rate expectations;
central bank purchases;
ETF flows;
geopolitical risks.
If these factors continue to work simultaneously in gold's favor, the likelihood of another move to all-time highs increases.
Main conclusion
Gold has already passed the stage when its growth could be explained by one reason.
Now this is a story aboutdollar, interest rates, geopolitics, public finances and the changing structure of world reserves.
Deutsche Bank believes that the recent correction has not disrupted the long-term trend and maintains its fair value estimate of around$4700.
But the most interesting thing here is not even the number itself.
If central banks continue to buy gold, the dollar remains under pressure and real rates begin to decline, the market could see a new wave of demand.
And then the question will no longer be:
“Can gold return to $5,000?”
A:
“How long will this explosive phase last?”
What does this mean for the market?
For a trader, the key signal remains the behavior of gold relative to the dollar and Treasury yields.
If yields decline, the dollar weakens, and central bank purchases continue, fundamentals remain positive.
If the dollar starts to strengthen along with real yields, gold could face a sharp correction again.
Therefore the forecast$4700It's best taken not as a guaranteed destination, but as a guide to how highly major financial institutions now value the metal's potential.
