Donald Trump's approval rating has hit a new low.
According to a recent Reuters/Ipsos survey, his work is only approved by33% of Americans, whereas64% disapprove. This is the worst indicator for the current term of the president.
Moreover, the problem already goes far beyond the usual political confrontation.
The main factor of discontent is the war with Iran.
Americans do not believe in a quick end to the conflict
About80% of respondents believe that the military confrontation with Iran will last a long time.
This is especially important because a protracted conflict means more than political risks.
It affects oil, gasoline, inflation, and the cost of living of American families.
It is the economic component that may be the most painful for the Trump administration.
War strikes the wallet
Any threat of oil supply disruptions through the Middle East is quickly reflected in world prices.
For the American consumer, this means more expensive gasoline and additional costs.
And inflation and the cost of living are already among the main sources of dissatisfaction with the White House's policies.
It turns out an unpleasant chain:
conflict → oil → gasoline → inflation → declining consumer confidence → falling political support.
And the longer the conflict lasts, the stronger this mechanism works.
Why this is important before the election
The US midterm elections will be held in November 2026.
For Republicans, the president's weak rating becomes a serious risk.
It is especially important that the discontent begins to affect not only Trump's traditional opponents.
Polls show signs of weakening support within the Republican electorate as well.
If the economic situation continues to deteriorate, the issue of war with Iran may turn from a foreign policy topic into one of the central factors of voting.
The market is also following this story
For financial markets, political ratings alone are not a trading signal.
But its consequences can be much more important.
The continuation of the conflict is able to support oil prices and increase inflationary risks.
And higher inflation complicates the Fed's task, which is simultaneously trying to prevent new price pressures and stifle the economy with high rates.
Therefore, politics, oil, inflation and interest rates are now much more closely linked than usual.
Main conclusion
Trump's rating drops to33%is not just another bad number from a political poll.
It shows that the war with Iran is gradually turning into an internal economic problem.
80% of Americans expect a protracted conflict, and rising fuel prices could increase pressure on households.
Now the main question for the markets is not only how the confrontation with Iran will end.
It is also important thathow much political and economic price the Trump administration would be willing to pay for its continuation.
